A special advisory for the INTENSE STORMS for the next 72 hours (Until 3pm September 6) for the following states and regions.

Until 3PM Saturday:

OAXACA (the entire state), VERACRUZ (The entire State), TABASCO (Southwest), CHIAPAS (Coastal Areas);

Until 3PM Sunday:

VERACRUZ (Central and North), PUEBLA (North and East), HIDALGO (North and East), SAN LUIS POTOSÍ (East), OAXACA (The Entire State), GUERRERO (The Entire State), MICHOACÁN (South)

Until Monday 3 PM

PUEBLA (North), HIDALGO (North and East);

VERACRUZ (North), TAMAULIPAS (South), y SAN LUIS POTOSÍ (East)

High Possibility of rain with accumulations of 150 mm in 72 horas or more. The potential of rain is associated with a tropical low pressure interacting with Cold Front ·2 and Tropical Wave 26.

The intensity of the Storms can be accompanied by torrential rain, Cloud to Cloud and Cloud to Ground Lightning, HAIL and STRONG WINDS which can cause damage to property.  Depending on the geographical area can also produce FLASH FLOODING, LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES.

Tropical Satellite Close up of Mexico

Obviously we will continue to watch the remnants of the low pressure area that is left from Gaston which is just basically a bunch of disorganized clouds and showers moving west for the time but we need to see what happens as that area enters warmer waters closer to the Lesser Antilles.

Kevin

Although there are no watches or warnings in effect since Gaston is still quite east of the Northern Leeward Islands or Lesser Antilles but there is no doubt that somewhere from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico a Watch or Warning will pop up based on the Spaghetti on the map below.

Tropical Storm Fiona Computer Models.

You can see from the Model Cancun way off in the left top corner and models still not quite in agreement for a track yet, this early error margin is great so we will watch this carefully for the next few days.  If the models suggesting that Tropical Storm Gaston passes into the Caribbean are correct the area from Anguilla to Dominica should get the first hit around Wednesday next week thus we would start to see watches popping up over the weekend once the system becomes more stable and the computer data more reliable.

For the time I will say that Tropical Storm Gaston will NOT AFFECT MEXICO but I might have to update that over the weekend.

Kevin

Tropical Storm Fiona is probably the most disorganized Tropical Storm we have seen this year, disorganized and scattered showers and clouds but still a Tropical Storm in theory.  All of the computer models except BAMD have Tropical Storm Fiona moving basically the same track as Earl but farther to the east than Earl tracked.  The BAMD has Fiona turning south southwest tomorrow and crossing the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and coming right at Playa Del Carmen or Tulum.  Someone really needs to take a look at the BAMD because looking at Tropical Storm Gaston as well BAMD has Gaston tracking nearly the same which conditions do NOT support.

Fiona is packing winds of 50 mph / 95 kph and is moving Northwest 320º at 17 mph / 24 kph.

All watches and warnings were discontinued yesterday while today Bermuda has a Tropical Storm Watch in effect.

Normally I would discontinue special updates on a system so far away and moving away but we will continue to add information as long as the BAMD model is showing a possible track towards us.  Once that is re-calibrated or changes we will discontinue monitoring Fiona as it will have NO EFFECT ON MEXICO, Cancun or The Riviera Maya.

Kevin

Due to current track all Watches and Warnings have been discontinued.

We will monitor Tropical Storm Fiona for changes in Direction or Strength.

Tropical Storm FIONA will not affect Cancun, Playa Del Carmen or the Riviera Maya or any part of Mexico for that matter.

Kevin

Fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight and Thursday but a gradual decrease in strenght is expected by Friday.

Earl is a Large Hurricane and Growing, Hurricane winds extend 90 miles outward and tropical storm force winds extend as much as 200 miles from the center of Earl.

Here is a summary of the Warnings and Watches from the NHC.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

Hurricane Earl will NOT AFFECT MEXICO and this will be the Last Report here for Hurricane Earl.

Kevin

Current Winds are 40 mph / 65 kph Moving West (275º) at 15 mph / 24 kph.

Currently there are no watches or warnings related to Tropical Storm Gaston.

Kevin

Seems that August went out with a rush of hurricanes and Tropical Events and September is coming in the same way, with a rush of Tropical Events already on the board and more waves coming off the coast of Africa.

Tropical Depression 9 was an INVEST just this morning but one with a lot of potential to develop and develop it is.

Tropical Depression 9 is moving much slower (14 mph) than Fiona or Earl did and thus the possibility to become larger and more powerful sooner than its sisters who were charging to the west at 24 or 25 mph.

Winds are already 35 mph so right on the border of becoming the next named Tropical System of the 2010 Hurricane Season (Gaston).

While most of the Islands seem to be dodging the bullet with Fiona I am not sure that will happen with Gaston.  Gaston has the potential to become a major storm and at the current speed would reach the Lesser Antilles in about 6 days (Monday next week).  But realistically 1860 miles away and still just a depression is hard to predict what will eventually come of Gaston when he becomes the 6th named storm of the season.

Current models although only about 50% accurate seem to agree that Gaston could move directly toward the Lesser Antilles and then into the Caribbean while a couple models have Gaston following the same path as Fiona.  Right now we will definately keep an eye on this one as a potential threat to the Caribbean next week.

Kevin

Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla.  Also St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius have a Tropical Storm Watch in Effect.

Tropical Storm Fiona is expected to take a turn more to the north and sooner than Hurricane Earl did and spare most of the islands any direct affects from the system although the entire area of warnings and watches can get heavy rains and gusty winds from this system as well.

Tropical Storm Fiona will have NO AFFECT on MEXICO at all.

For up to the minute information from the Islands affected or near affected areas please visit Storm Carib.

Kevin

Tropical Storm Warnings continue in effect for the Turks and Caicos and Southeastern Bahamas.

Interests in the US, in particular from the Carolinas North through New England should monitor the progress of Hurricane Earl as hurricane watches for the Atlantic Coast of the US could be needed late today or tonight.

Hurricane Earl had NO IMPACT on Mexico and WILL NOT AFFECT MEXICO.

For Information on how hurricane Earl affected the Islands visit Storm Carib.

Kevin