Rain continues to pound Cancun, Playa del Carmen and the Riviera Maya as Cold Front 9 remains almost stationary over the northwest of the Yucatan.

The national weather service in Mexico is reporting that Cold Front #9 has become stationary over the western part of the Caribbean and is generating unstable weather with clouds and rain across the entire Yucatan Peninsula.  This mass of air extends over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern and central part of the country keeping temperatures below normal and bringing ice and freezing conditions to the north, central and eastern part of Mexico just like a Noreaster of “moderate” intensity with winds reaching as much as 40 mph / 60 kph around Istmo and the Gulf of Tehuatepec with elevated tides to 7 feet above normal along the south of the Gulf of Mexico, North and West of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A new cold front will begin to cross into Northern Mexico Wednesday November 2, 2011 and advance rapidly towards the Yucatan Peninsula bringing yes, you guessed it more clouds, winds and winter conditions again like a Noreaster with winds of up to 50 kph or 35 mph and should move into the area of the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and towards the Yucatan Peninsula in time to ruin the weekend.

So, although the hurricane season is in her final stretch, conditions haven’t improved in the area.

Tropical Storm Rina passed southwest Cozumel around 9:45 PM with her center of circulation before making landfall a little further north than originally projected but off by less than 2 miles.  Rina made her landfall with torrential rain and high winds but thanks to the cold front pushing down from the northwest of the Gulf of Mexico and wind shear Rina was only packing winds of 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph.

Here you can see the current position of Tropical Storm Rina moving very very slowly north, just 9 miles to the west of Cancun Airport.

At the moment Rina continues over land as a tropical storm still packing winds of 70 miles per hour and is located still 15 kilometers or 9 miles to the west of Cancun and the Cancun International Airport.  Although the Cancun Airport remains open and functioning yesterday more than 90 flights were canceled in and out of Cancun from different areas including Denver and Canada from Frontier and Air Canada.

Yesterday afternoon ASUR the company that operates Cancun International Airport issued a bulletin urging passengers to contact their airlines and assure that they had a confirmed seat and flight as thousands of tourists flocked to the airport hoping to leave before the arrival of Rina.  The Secretary of Tourism for the State of Quintana Roo reported that there were 84,000 tourists from around the world currently at hotels in Cancun and the Riviera Maya including Playa del Carmen, Isla Mujeres and the Island of Cozumel.

At this time ferry service from Playa del Carmen to Cozumel and from Cancun to Isla Mujeres continues to be suspended and the Tropical Storm warnings from Punta Allen just south of Tulum too Progresso in the State of Yucatan remains in effect as Rina is expected to continue to dump torrential rains and winds all day today and most likely tomorrow.

Classes remain suspended the rest of this week and Playa del Carmen did activate the Emergency Shelters for evacuees although we don’t have numbers of who was evacuated or to where.  We are awaiting word on when the Dry Law (Ley Seca) will be lifted and the sale of alcoholic beverages can be sold and consumed at least maybe in restaurants with purchase of food.

Here are some initial images coming out of the first views post tropical storm.

You can see that not all of the trees stood the test of Rina as she made landfall in Playa del Carmen

Photo of the current conditions in Playa del Carmen

We will update as we get more information.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found a weaker Rina moving towards the coast of Mexico’s Riviera Maya at about 6 mph with winds of 75 mph she is now officially a Tropical Storm.

Mexico’s Government has changed the Warnings from Hurricane Warnings to Tropical Storm Warnings for the same areas as there is no change in the path of Rina.  One very important change is the post Cancun trajectory of Rina, instead of heading to Cuba as predicted originally, thanks to Cold Front #9 which is bringing freezing temperatures to northern and central Mexico will cause Rina once she emerges into the Northern Caribbean to make a turn to the south and head back towards Central Caribbean first as a tropical depression.

Satellite and updated projected path of Rina showing the potential for her turning back to the south after emerging into the northern Caribbean and making another pass at Mexico or the Cayman Islands.

It’s not common yet not unusual for a hurricane or tropical storm to get steered back towards the area it just came from, this time the blessing is that the cold front will knock the energy out of Rina to a Tropical Depression and unless she encounters no wind shear and no warmer waters she will just continue to dump copious amounts of rain and storms on the area for 5 more days.

Here are some images of preparations in Playa Del Carmen for Rina’s arrival.

Photo of an abandoned 5th Avenue Wednesday Afternoon in Playa del Carmen

Restaurants in Playa del Carmen like other businesses closed for business waiting for the arrival of hurricane Rina

Another Restaurant closed and boarded in the resort community of Playa del Carmen waiting for the arrival of Hurricane Rina in the early evening of thursday..

Hurricane Rina a Weak Category 1 Hurricane continues to move to the northwest on its projected path to make landfall around the area of Playacar in southern Playa del Carmen near the Ferry Crossing Pier.

The Zone of Cancun, Playa del Carmen the entire Riviera Maya from Puerto Morelos to Tulum including Cozumel and Isla Mujeres are under “ORANGE ALERT”.  Schools remain closed as does ferry service from mainland to the Islands of Cozumel and Isla Mujeres, sale of alcoholic beverages has been suspended including in restaurants and supermarkets.

The Cancun International Airport remains open and no flights have been canceled however many flights are being rescheduled by the airlines themselves waiting to see what the outcome in the area is. If you have a flight in or out of Cancun International Airport contact your airline to make sure your flight is on schedule.

Satellite Image of Hurricane Rina Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph and gusts to 95 mph. Closing in on the Island of Cozumel and the Coast of the Rivera Maya near Playa del Carmen Quintana Roo

As you can see from the Satellite Image above the Center of Hurricane Rina although weaker in strength still has a defined eye and continues moving towards Playa del Carmen. All current models and the Mexican Government have the hurricane coming onto land around Playacar Playa del Carmen and moving across the entire city of Playa del Carmen moving to the north passing west of Cancun’s Airport and the City of Cancun.

Here you can see the projected path of Hurricane Rina over the next 36 hours from the moment it passes to the southwest of Cozumel through the time it passes west of Cancun.

Current Conditions in Playa del Carmen are deteriorating with torrential rain falling at times with high gusts of winds as a result of the outer bands from Rina.  All preparations should have been completed yesterday to assure safety, in the past experience during these types of events injuries and deaths from the hurricane or tropical storm happen in the last hours before impact to persons trying to prepare their homes or businesses.  Yesterday many continued to prepare their homes for the visit of Rina.

Residents in Playa del Carmen continue to prepare their homes boarding windows and doors

Hurricane Rina still a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph …175kph and gusts to 225 kph or 140 mph is now moving to the west northwest as was predicted slowly at 4 mph.

The Mexican Government has extended the Hurricane Warning and Tropical Storm Warnings, hurricane warnings are now in effect from Cancun to San Felipe and a Tropical Storm Warning from San Felipe to Progresso which is on the Gulf coast near Merida. Also Tropical Storm Warnings continue in effect for Chetumal to Punta Gruesa.

Image of Hurricane Rina with current changes in direction and speed.

As you can see from the map Hurricane Rina is projected to pass slightly to the south west of Cozumel Island sometime during the day Thursday as she makes her way to landfall near the resort town of Playa del Carmen.

Tropical Storm Winds should start battering the coast of Mexico and Cozumel Island Later today, those who want to leave Cozumel before Rina makes her humble arrival must leave before 9PM Wednesday. All vehicles ferry service to and from Cozumel is already suspended and the vessels have been moved to Puerto Aventuras for safety.

After 9PM tonight all passenger ferry service will be suspended unless conditions require suspension prior as all passenger ferry vessels also are moved to Puerto Aventuras Marina for safe keeping. Nobody wants a repeat of Wilma where the ferry in Puerto Morelos waiting to long and was forced aground by the impending storm.

Hurricane Rina could still increase to a Category 3 hurricane sometime today or overnight as it continues in warm waters and moves closer to the coast and then take a turn more to the north northwest as it passes the southwestern tip of Cozumel in Quintana Roo and then turn more to the north before turning away towards Cuba.

Classes are suspended in all schools at all levels in and around Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen and south to Tulum including Cozumel since most of the schools are used as evacuation shelters.

Holbox Island has been given the Evacuation Order for tourists and residents to leave the island, all around Playa del Carmen businesses are boarding up their storefronts and preparing for the impact sometime Thursday of Hurricane Rina.

We will keep you up to the minute with information as we have it.

Hurricane Rina Category 2 hurricane moving towards the tourist destination of Playa del Carmen

As you can see from the current satellite image Hurricane Rina covers a very large area of the Caribbean Sea, right now a Category 2 Hurricane but expected in the next couple of hours to become a dangerous category 3 hurricane as she continues to meander to the west.  The National Weather Service in Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Gruesa (just north of Chetumal Quintana Roo the Capitol City in Quintana Roo) to Cancun and there is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa as well as Belize.

Hurricane Rina is expected to continue slowly moving to the west for the next 24 hours before turning slightly to the north and gaining some forward speed and becoming a Category 3 hurricane.  If Rina follows the current models she is expected to pass over Cozumel Island, if you remember in 2005 Hurricane Wilma a Category 5 hurricane “the hurricane of the century” devastated Cozumel before moving off and crushing Puerto Morelos and Cancun with more than 36 hours of hurricane force winds.

Hurricane Rina doesn’t have the characteristics of Wilma and there are multiple cold fronts pushing down from the north bringing freezing temperatures to parts of Mexico and could help keep Rina from moving across the Yucatan Peninsula.  The bad news is that there is another surface trough in the south central caribbean that is showing increased showers and thunderstorm activity and it will continue to move west and has the chance of developing into the next hurricane of the season but not within the next 48 hours.

Businesses are cautiously beginning to prepare for the arrival of Rina although most are waiting until Wednesday with the hopes that the hurricane might turn more to the north and not affect the area.  At the same time Municipal workers are cleaning storm drains, cutting branches and trees in danger of being knocked down and securing traffic lights and overhead signs.  The electric company is also checking branches and trees that might affect power lines during high winds and removing them.

We still haven’t received information on the tourists situation whether people are making their way to the airports and or canceling arriving to the area but we will keep you posted on that.

The Local Civil Defense units are urging residents and businesses not to wait to prepare their homes and businesses as conditions are expected to get bad Wednesday as tropical storm winds extend nearly 150 kilometers from the center of the Hurricane.

Heavy to torrential rains and high winds continue in the southeast of Mexico from Chetumal to Merida as Tropical Wave 4 moves into the Gulf of Mexico

On the map above you can see the current position of Tropical Wave 4 in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Low Pressure Area which is over the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula moving west behind the Tropical Wave.  Two additional Tropical Waves are moving towards Central America over the next week from the Tropical Atlantic but typically these waves move straight across Central America into the Pacific as you can see from reviewing last years weather reports.

A Hurricane Hunter Plane was scheduled to check the system over the Gulf of Mexico today as the upper level winds in the next day or so will become more conducive to development.

Todays Weather:

Cancun, Playa Del Carmen the Riviera Maya down to Tulum is more of the same, Rain, Rain and more Rain heavy at times with strong winds continuing as well and that same pattern can be expected over the next day or two although on Thursday most of the rain should have moved out of the area leaving behind some partial cloudiness and winds.  Temperatures are in the 70′s overnight and reaching close to 80F – 82F during the day under cloudy skies with humidity as you imagine 100%.

Pacific Coast including Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero just a bit of the same although the severe storm warnings for the area are lifted as of 12 noon today.  Temperatures about the same as Caribbean Coast area.  Rains and wind will continue to affect the area just like the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula until late tomorrow or early Thursday before clearing up for the next tropical wave approaching towards the weekend.

Gulf Coast including Merida,Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche wow just more of the same as Tropical Wave 4 moved yesterday into the bay of Campeche moving west at 5 to 10 kilometers per hour dumping torrential rains on the area as well as high winds closing navigational ports  to small vessels. Today an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is schedule to check the system and a 40% chance of development exists for the next 24 hours.

Central Mexico including Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Mexico City, Morelos and the State of Mexico, yes you guessed it, much of the same weather as they are surrounded by the systems affecting coastal areas of Mexico.  Parts of Mexico City and the State of Mexico are experiencing severe flooding some areas of Ecetapec in Mexico State have 3 feet of water.  Rains will continue in the area today with 80% chance of Rain with Electrical Storms and winds.

Pacific North and Northern Mexico well here we have little rain right now actually sunny with some clouds but temperatures 102F to 105F with winds gusty at times and no rain in the forecast for the next 24 hours.

We will keep you up to date on this and other weather and news here in Mexico’s “tourist areas” daily when possible.

The Radar updates the image every 15 minutes.

Cancun Weather Radar - Upates every 15 minutes.

The official start and finish of hurricane season in Mexico and the Caribbean in general including the Gulf of Mexico, Florida’s Atlantic Coast and of course the Pacific Coast of Mexico never changes.  Every year we ring in hurricane season on June 1st and watch it almost go away on November 30th which are the official dates of the dreaded season.  Now that doesn’t mean that every year from June 1 to November 30th the travel destinations affected by those dates have storms, tropical events or even hurricanes, actually until 2005 when Hurricane Emily struck Puerto Aventuras in July it had been more than 20 years since a tropical event much less a hurricane of its magnitude struck the Caribbean coast of Mexico.  That same year proved to be more devastating than 1988 when Hurricane Gilbert struck the resort destination of Cancun leaving it without water or power for weeks and stranding many people locals and tourists alike.

Photos of Damage to Puerto Aventuras when Hurricane Emily Passed directly on top of this Riviera Maya community in 2005

From 1988 to 2005 I can honestly say Mexico’s Caribbean coast enjoyed a lull for lack of other words in tropical activity with only some potential storms and near misses to keep the adrenaline flowing but no direct hits until 2005.  After 2005 we have had 2 near passes of Tropical Events but none that actually came in and affected the area although Hurricane Dean that struck in 2007 the area of Majahual or Mahahual depending on who you ask causing widespread damage to the town and destroying the cruise ship pier which was the primary source of income for the area businesses.  Dean was originally supposed to hit further to the north in the Riviera Maya area of Playa Del Carmen but steering winds changed and Hurricane Dean moved inland earlier than expected saving the very populated area of Playa Del Carmen.  Businesses were closed the entire stretch of area from Chetumal to Cancun in anticipation of the arrival of Hurricane Dean and some hotels evacuated guests who didn’t decide to fly home to interior rooms away from the beach and Counties like Solidaridad and Benito Juarez put in effect the ban on sale of alcoholic beverages.  in 2003 we had Hurricane Ivan moving up the center of the Caribbean expected to strike the Cancun area but maintained a course through the middle of the Caribbean and then east over the northwest tip of Cuba around the Island of Youth.

Image of the Hyatt Regency Cancun from Plaza Forum during the passing of hurricane IVAN in 2004

An earlier scare was Hurricane Mitch a massive Category 5 hurricane that like Wilma in 2005 meandered around Honduras and Nicaragua killing an unknown number of people but with estimates in the thousands. While the effects of Mitch were not felt in Mexico’s Caribbean resort destinations like Cancun and Playa Del Carmen businesses were closed for 3 days, malls boarded up and thousands of tourists evacuated home in anticipation of his arrival. The weather in Cancun during Mitch’s time in the Caribbean was cool, hi winds from the north and rainy or gloomy.  This the result of a noreaster blowing in which is what actually kept Mitch so far to the south.  The winds were 50 to 60 kilomters per hour with temperatures only hitting the 70′s F and rain or mist constantly blowing.  The beaches were abandoned from a mix of red flags and the cool temperatures.

Satellite Image of Hurricane Mitch on October 26, 1998

So many people wrote us last year asking us “what do you think about the weather in September”? or “Do you think there will be a hurricane in October”? Great questions and if not for the fact that my crystal ball is broken I would love to answer.  No really, lets face it those guys in the fancy suits on TV with the colored ties and all that would be making millions if we could predict that far ahead.

How far in advance can we predict the weather? That is a good question and the answer for us here in Mexico is about 14 to 18 days out we can see what is brewing off the coast of Africa or in the Gulf of Mexico or  Cold Fronts coming down from the North.  Here on the Caribbean Coast of Mexico our weather comes from waves that come off the coast of West Africa, not all of it gets into the central caribbean, many of the waves like the 40 some last year head across Central America and emerge on Mexico’s Pacific coast causing havoc over there.  Some of our systems as we learned from hurricane Emily develop closer to home in the southern or central caribbean because of unstable conditions.

So if you are planning your vacations here in Cancun, Playa Del Carmen, Puerto Aventuras, Cozumel or Isla Mujeres and are thinking about the weather during hurricane season here are some things to remember.

1. Unlike a Tornado, hurricanes are predictable and conditions need to exist prior for all of the elements to come together for the event.
2. Tropical Storms can be as dangerous as a Hurricane depending on where and how they make landfall.
3. If you are on vacation and are informed that a hurricane is approaching or might approach follow the instructions of the hotel staff while at the same time keep posted to TV news and internet reports so you can make an informed decision to stay or not. In other words don’t rely solely on the advice of the hotel staff as it may not be based on YOUR best interests.
4. While the weather can turn bad anytime during your vacations if you are travelling in September, October and November we suggest you buy travel insurance as these 3 months historically are the most active with storms and tropical events.
5. Monitor the weather here at Mexico Travel Magazine where we update you daily on weather conditions.
6. If you take medication be sure that you get a prescription from your doctor for sufficient for the time you are on vacation and 50% more in case you can’t get back home right away due to a storm.
7. Bring a small flashlight with you with fresh batteries, remember hotels do no provide these to guests in the event of a storm.
8. Lastly have a small reserve of cash tucked away since after a storm it could be anywhere from hours to a couple of days to recover electricity and for ATM’s or Cash Machines to function 100% as well as banks.

Currently Hurricane Paula still a Category 2 hurricane packing winds of 100 mph / 160 kph with some higher gusts is moving NORTH at at 9 mph / 15 kph but is expected to slow down as it moves into the Canal.

Why we dodged the Bullet was beacuse of Paulas small size and hurricane force winds that extended only 15 miles from the center and Tropical Storm force winds that extended only 55 miles from the center of circulation making Paula a very compact system. 

Weather stations in Cancun and Isla Mujeres are currently not responding which could be the result of some tropical storm force winds in the area since Paulas center is just 55 miles east of Cancun meaning that those winds can be affecting Cancun and Isla Mujeres as Paula moves away from their area which you can see on the map.  The last report we had from Isla Mujeres 45 minutes ago was Temperature 78°F, Winds 25 mph and cloudy.

Hurricane Paula in relation to Cancun and the Riviera Maya

We are expecting that the Mexican Government will lift the Hurricane Warning for the rest of the Coast this morning sometime once Paula has moved off the coast, the warning was updated overnight eliminating Punta Allen and south from warning area. So for the moment a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Punta Allen North to Cabo Catoche (North of Cancun) and a Tropical Storm Warning for Cabo Catoche to San Felipe Yucatan.

Kevin

Classes for all schools private and public all grades have been suspended for Wednesday.

Ferry service between Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen has been suspended since 4PM tuesday until further notice.

Preparations around Playa Del Carmen and the Riviera Maya were continuing as we toured the area at 9PM CST with some businesses boarding up windows.  A walk of the 5th Avenue in the afternoon showed little change in activity and the beaches were quiet with people still relaxing outside there hotels.

Even now at 11PM looking outside you would never know that there is a storm approaching.  No wind (less than 5mph) and a quiet ocean still with Paula about 80 miles southeast of Cozumel and continuing to move to the North Northwest at 9 mph / 15 kph.

Satellite Image of Hurricane Paula Approaching the coast of cozumel

 Of all of Mexico Cozumel will take the brunt of the storm as it passes to the east of the Island.  Original projections early in the Morning had Paula passing over the south tip of Cozumel on route to the mainland between Playa and Cancun but Hurricane Paula is now taking aim at the Yucatan Canal and western Cuba.

Tomorrow we hope to have live images and film from Playa Del Carmen.

Kevin