Frequently I get e-mails from visitors to the different websites or forums that I write for or moderate asking the question; Should I cancel my trip?
Most of the time these questions are related to weather that may or may not enter an area, reports of rain or windy conditions and even in the past 16 months related to the Influenza outbreak that was invented by someone to create a crisis and of course the well promoted drug wars going on in the border states.
First the influenza that killed last years summer, fall and part of the winter tourism was a media fantasy. More people die each year from the regular flu than from the H1N1 that everyone was chattering about last year.
Next the Drug War, the way the US Press and International Press is portraying things is people are being gunned down on the street for no reason and one reporter likened the condition in Mexico to Afghanastan. My god another fantasy devised to keep tourists at home and not traveling and spending money in foreign countries. People are not being gunned down on the street (innocent people that is) and tourists are not being kidnaped in some scheme to attract attention. The real situation is that the people being killed are from the same Organized Crime Families that are fighting for territory. Maybe you are all too young to remember the old days when there were struggles for control by Mafia Families in Chicago, New York, New Jersey and Las Vegas to name a few tourist areas. The Crime family members were the ones being killed and today in Mexico and the US and other parts of the world is the same. Although today in the US the Mafia isn’t what it was when I was young but the Street Gangs in Miami, LA or NY do the same and at a much colder level than the Italian Mob.
Finally because of the current situation with the Very Active 3rd month in the 2010 hurricane season the other mail I get is for that. I get mails asking will this storm arrive to Cancun? Should I Cancel? How BAD will it be?
In all cases I have to say and always say Canceling your Vacation or cutting it short is a PERSONAL CHOICE whatever the reason. Be an educated traveller and know what to expect or what you MIGHT expect. Best and worst case scenarios and of course most important with whom you are traveling. If for example have always travelled during “hurricane season” or “rainy season” because I get the best deals and the least amount of people. Have I ever cancelled my plans? NEVER! Have I ever encountered bad weather or a hurricane? Yep I did, on my first trip to Cancun back in 1990 when I arrived a few days after a Category 1 hurricane and found that the hotel I booked in was quite WET to say the least. The hotel was the Melia Turquesa and the rooms I requested were flooded from water that penetrated the window seals and patio doors. Since we were only 10 out of a couple hundred rooms occupied they moved me and my family to the Presidential Suite and worked day and night to dry things out. We had the pool and hotel almost to ourselves and it was great.
If I were traveling with small children or elderly persons I MIGHT not be so adventurous when making a decision but for me and my wife we will always give it a shot. I know here in Mexico at the very least that during the worst hurricane in history “Wilma” 2005 there was no loss of life from the tourism sector and the only loss of life was before the hurricane actually hit from people preparing for the storm.
The system that is coming is a Tropical Wave with a Low Pressure area that is associated with it, there is the possibility of further development but with its arrival in only 2 days and the current conditions in the Caribbean I can say I doubt it will reach hurricane status before coming ashore but could be a tropical storm or depression.
Where will it hit? That seems to always be the million dollar question and models all have it coming into Mexico but where exactly for a tropical wave like this is with an error margin of 200 miles sometimes. My experience tells me and maps, conditions and hurricane hunter aircraft reports show a very disorganized center of circulation and thus chance of a major tropical event is near zero for the CARIBBEAN and entering somewhere between Belize City and Mahahual in Quintana Roo.
The Area from Tulum to Cancun should be affected by rain, heavy to torrential rain and some winds, most likely the navegational ports will close from south to north on Wednesday meaning that no aquatic activities will take place. I suggest you plan on staying at the hotel or going somewhere within walking distance on Wednesday.
Further I recommend staying posted for updates to conditions as well as direction but I don’t think that one day of rain no matter how heavy will dampen your week here and of course if you are arriving on Saturday or Sunday the weather will be much better.