Heavy to torrential rains and high winds continue in the southeast of Mexico from Chetumal to Merida as Tropical Wave 4 moves into the Gulf of Mexico

On the map above you can see the current position of Tropical Wave 4 in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Low Pressure Area which is over the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula moving west behind the Tropical Wave.  Two additional Tropical Waves are moving towards Central America over the next week from the Tropical Atlantic but typically these waves move straight across Central America into the Pacific as you can see from reviewing last years weather reports.

A Hurricane Hunter Plane was scheduled to check the system over the Gulf of Mexico today as the upper level winds in the next day or so will become more conducive to development.

Todays Weather:

Cancun, Playa Del Carmen the Riviera Maya down to Tulum is more of the same, Rain, Rain and more Rain heavy at times with strong winds continuing as well and that same pattern can be expected over the next day or two although on Thursday most of the rain should have moved out of the area leaving behind some partial cloudiness and winds.  Temperatures are in the 70′s overnight and reaching close to 80F – 82F during the day under cloudy skies with humidity as you imagine 100%.

Pacific Coast including Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero just a bit of the same although the severe storm warnings for the area are lifted as of 12 noon today.  Temperatures about the same as Caribbean Coast area.  Rains and wind will continue to affect the area just like the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula until late tomorrow or early Thursday before clearing up for the next tropical wave approaching towards the weekend.

Gulf Coast including Merida,Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche wow just more of the same as Tropical Wave 4 moved yesterday into the bay of Campeche moving west at 5 to 10 kilometers per hour dumping torrential rains on the area as well as high winds closing navigational ports  to small vessels. Today an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is schedule to check the system and a 40% chance of development exists for the next 24 hours.

Central Mexico including Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Mexico City, Morelos and the State of Mexico, yes you guessed it, much of the same weather as they are surrounded by the systems affecting coastal areas of Mexico.  Parts of Mexico City and the State of Mexico are experiencing severe flooding some areas of Ecetapec in Mexico State have 3 feet of water.  Rains will continue in the area today with 80% chance of Rain with Electrical Storms and winds.

Pacific North and Northern Mexico well here we have little rain right now actually sunny with some clouds but temperatures 102F to 105F with winds gusty at times and no rain in the forecast for the next 24 hours.

We will keep you up to date on this and other weather and news here in Mexico’s “tourist areas” daily when possible.

The Radar updates the image every 15 minutes.

Cancun Weather Radar - Upates every 15 minutes.

The official start and finish of hurricane season in Mexico and the Caribbean in general including the Gulf of Mexico, Florida’s Atlantic Coast and of course the Pacific Coast of Mexico never changes.  Every year we ring in hurricane season on June 1st and watch it almost go away on November 30th which are the official dates of the dreaded season.  Now that doesn’t mean that every year from June 1 to November 30th the travel destinations affected by those dates have storms, tropical events or even hurricanes, actually until 2005 when Hurricane Emily struck Puerto Aventuras in July it had been more than 20 years since a tropical event much less a hurricane of its magnitude struck the Caribbean coast of Mexico.  That same year proved to be more devastating than 1988 when Hurricane Gilbert struck the resort destination of Cancun leaving it without water or power for weeks and stranding many people locals and tourists alike.

Photos of Damage to Puerto Aventuras when Hurricane Emily Passed directly on top of this Riviera Maya community in 2005

From 1988 to 2005 I can honestly say Mexico’s Caribbean coast enjoyed a lull for lack of other words in tropical activity with only some potential storms and near misses to keep the adrenaline flowing but no direct hits until 2005.  After 2005 we have had 2 near passes of Tropical Events but none that actually came in and affected the area although Hurricane Dean that struck in 2007 the area of Majahual or Mahahual depending on who you ask causing widespread damage to the town and destroying the cruise ship pier which was the primary source of income for the area businesses.  Dean was originally supposed to hit further to the north in the Riviera Maya area of Playa Del Carmen but steering winds changed and Hurricane Dean moved inland earlier than expected saving the very populated area of Playa Del Carmen.  Businesses were closed the entire stretch of area from Chetumal to Cancun in anticipation of the arrival of Hurricane Dean and some hotels evacuated guests who didn’t decide to fly home to interior rooms away from the beach and Counties like Solidaridad and Benito Juarez put in effect the ban on sale of alcoholic beverages.  in 2003 we had Hurricane Ivan moving up the center of the Caribbean expected to strike the Cancun area but maintained a course through the middle of the Caribbean and then east over the northwest tip of Cuba around the Island of Youth.

Image of the Hyatt Regency Cancun from Plaza Forum during the passing of hurricane IVAN in 2004

An earlier scare was Hurricane Mitch a massive Category 5 hurricane that like Wilma in 2005 meandered around Honduras and Nicaragua killing an unknown number of people but with estimates in the thousands. While the effects of Mitch were not felt in Mexico’s Caribbean resort destinations like Cancun and Playa Del Carmen businesses were closed for 3 days, malls boarded up and thousands of tourists evacuated home in anticipation of his arrival. The weather in Cancun during Mitch’s time in the Caribbean was cool, hi winds from the north and rainy or gloomy.  This the result of a noreaster blowing in which is what actually kept Mitch so far to the south.  The winds were 50 to 60 kilomters per hour with temperatures only hitting the 70′s F and rain or mist constantly blowing.  The beaches were abandoned from a mix of red flags and the cool temperatures.

Satellite Image of Hurricane Mitch on October 26, 1998

So many people wrote us last year asking us “what do you think about the weather in September”? or “Do you think there will be a hurricane in October”? Great questions and if not for the fact that my crystal ball is broken I would love to answer.  No really, lets face it those guys in the fancy suits on TV with the colored ties and all that would be making millions if we could predict that far ahead.

How far in advance can we predict the weather? That is a good question and the answer for us here in Mexico is about 14 to 18 days out we can see what is brewing off the coast of Africa or in the Gulf of Mexico or  Cold Fronts coming down from the North.  Here on the Caribbean Coast of Mexico our weather comes from waves that come off the coast of West Africa, not all of it gets into the central caribbean, many of the waves like the 40 some last year head across Central America and emerge on Mexico’s Pacific coast causing havoc over there.  Some of our systems as we learned from hurricane Emily develop closer to home in the southern or central caribbean because of unstable conditions.

So if you are planning your vacations here in Cancun, Playa Del Carmen, Puerto Aventuras, Cozumel or Isla Mujeres and are thinking about the weather during hurricane season here are some things to remember.

1. Unlike a Tornado, hurricanes are predictable and conditions need to exist prior for all of the elements to come together for the event.
2. Tropical Storms can be as dangerous as a Hurricane depending on where and how they make landfall.
3. If you are on vacation and are informed that a hurricane is approaching or might approach follow the instructions of the hotel staff while at the same time keep posted to TV news and internet reports so you can make an informed decision to stay or not. In other words don’t rely solely on the advice of the hotel staff as it may not be based on YOUR best interests.
4. While the weather can turn bad anytime during your vacations if you are travelling in September, October and November we suggest you buy travel insurance as these 3 months historically are the most active with storms and tropical events.
5. Monitor the weather here at Mexico Travel Magazine where we update you daily on weather conditions.
6. If you take medication be sure that you get a prescription from your doctor for sufficient for the time you are on vacation and 50% more in case you can’t get back home right away due to a storm.
7. Bring a small flashlight with you with fresh batteries, remember hotels do no provide these to guests in the event of a storm.
8. Lastly have a small reserve of cash tucked away since after a storm it could be anywhere from hours to a couple of days to recover electricity and for ATM’s or Cash Machines to function 100% as well as banks.

Currently the National Weather Center in Mexico has issued at 3PM today a SEVERE STORM WARNING for Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Campeche, Veracruz and Chiapas.  Northern Quintana Roo has a TORRENTIAL RAIN WARNING for the next 6 hours.

Currently here in Playa Del Carmen since around 4PM we are experiencing Rain with Heavy Downpours, occasional Thunderstorms and local Flooding.

Tropical Satellite Closeup Cancun and The Riviera Maya

Tropical Depression Matthew continues over land moving West Northwest at 15 mph / 22 kph and has not yet slowed down.  The steering winds are expected to break down over the next 24 hours and the system should stall in the lower part of the Yucatan Peninsula for 2 or 3 days until is disappears.  Don’t be fooled though, even though not a tropical storm or hurricane when Matthew downgrades to a low pressure system he will continue to dump torrential rains on Central America and Southern Mexico in the area of Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Southern Veracruz and Southern Quintana Roo.

The area of the Northern Peninsula will be affected by rains heavy at time from the outer bands of Tropical Depression Matthew, in fact today in Northern Playa Del Carmen we had some scattered showers in the morning and early afternoon while in the Center of Playa Del Carmen rain in the morning was torrential causing flooding of some bad drainage areas and low areas.

Tropical Satellite Image of Conditions Around Tropical Depression Matthew

The National Weather Service in Mexico has issued an Intense Storm Warning.

A special advisory for the INTENSE STORMS for the next 7 hours (Until 3pm September 26) for the following states and regions but we expect that the special advisory will be updated to exclude Quintana Roo and Yucatan but expanded to include at least 5 or 6 other Central Mexico and South Central Mexico States.

Until Sunday 3 PM

Chiapas

Oaxaca

Veracruz

Campeche

Southern Quintana Roo

High Possibility of rain with accumulations of 350 mm in 72 horas or more. The potential of rain is associated with a tropical low pressure interacting with Cold Front ·2 and Tropical Storm Hermine.

The intensity of the Storms can be accompanied by torrential rain, Cloud to Cloud and Cloud to Ground Lightning, HAIL and STRONG WINDS which can cause damage to property.  Depending on the geographical area can also produce FLASH FLOODING, LANDSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES..

Warnings and Watches:

Tropical Storm Warnings in Nicaragua have been discontinued.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Honduras and Belize from Belize City SOUTH.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Belize City NORTH.

Tropical Storm conditions are possible today on the Caribbean Coast of Guatamala but there are no watches or warnings in effect there.

Here in Mexico, we are of course continuing to watch Matthew Carefully, not so much for the areas of Cancun to Tulum or the Costa Maya areas but for CHIAPAS, CAMPECHE and VERACRUZ.  Like Tropical Storm Karl Matthew is expected to have an impact on those states as he moves across land from Honduras looking for an exit into the Gulf of Mexico.  As you know Veracruz is suffering from extensive flooding and overflowing rivers from 14 days of rain prior to Karl then Karl slammed them forcing the evacuations of tens of thousands and declarations of disaster areas in 400 communities in Veracruz.

I commented in a “comment” that we are already seeing some rain bands from the Northeast Outer bands of Tropical Storm Matthew so our clear skies here in Playa Del Carmen already gave way to clouds and gave us a drenching just minutes ago. Everywhere along the Caribbean Coast of Mexico from Cancun and Isla Mujeres South to Tulum we can expect periods like that during the day today and from Tulum to Chetumal including Mahahual and Bacalar you can expect Cloudy Skies and periods of heavy rain and thundershowers.

Satellite Image Showing Rain Intensity for Tropical Storm Matthew

You can see from the above image that there is widespread rain in the area of Nicaragua, Honduras and spreading into Guatamala.  You can see the heaviest rain around Puerto Barrios and Puerto Cortes moving West Northwest towards to where Belize, Guatamala and Honduras meet on the Caribbean.  You can see as well that there are still heavy showers to the south and southwest of the system as well as in our area to the Northeast which we are getting some scattered clouds from.

Here is a close up satellite image of the system

Tropical Satellite image Close up of the area affected by Tropical Storm Matthew.

Information updated by Kevin 08:30 hours

Tropical Storm Matthew continues to move to the west towards the western Caribbean Sea but what can we expect from him in the next couple of days will depend on various factors including a Cold Front that will start pushing down across the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula.

As many of you know these cold fronts can bring strong winds but in this case as was the case when Mitch was trying to make his way up the coast towards Cancun but the Cold Front we had pushing down from the US kept Mitch in Central America for days as they battled for position which the cold front eventually won but our Central American neighbors became the losers as Mitch claimed an unknown number of lives.

Computer Models agree with my assesment that Matthew will cross the Nicaragua / Honduras area and either fizzle out or emerge in the Pacific.  Regardless of what it does we know that Chiapas will be severely affected by this system and maybe southern Quintana Roo around Chetumal and Bacalar.

Current conditions in Cancun and The Riviera Maya are rainy with some strong winds at this time as a result of Strong convection.

Climatic Conditions for the next 24 hours

Invest 95 taking aim at Central America and then the Caribbean Coast of Mexico

As you can see from the models we have most in agreement that after entering the area of Nicaragua and then Honduras (whether or not the system actually hits land there or not) the system will turn north and could either skip along the off shore areas from Belize to Cancun and then turn more north northeast and cross either Cuba and Florida or pass into the Yucatan Canal (that area between Cuba and Mexico entering the Gulf of Mexico.  Two of the Models have this Low Pressure striking the Yucatan Peninsula between Chetumal and Playa Del Carmen most likely as a weak Tropical Storm at this time.

We will keep you updated on any changes in conditions or path of this system over the next couple of days and we are going to try to do a live weather taping from the beach in Playa Del Carmen.

Kevin

A Hurricane Warning Remains in effect for the State of Veracruz from just south of Puerto Veracruz to Tuxpan Veracruz as well as for Interior areas of Veracruz.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Puebla and Tlaxcala as well as Mexico City.

Hurricane Karl Position at 1:15PM CST just after landfall in Veracruz.

The Eye of Hurricane Karl will be coming ashore as a Category 3 Hurricane near the Resort City of Veracruz and Boca del Rio located in the Center almost of the State of Veracruz packing winds of 125 mph / 195 kph and moving west at 10 mph.  It is also possible that Karl could become a Category 4 Hurricane before making landfall today in Veracruz.

The Mexican Government has initiated the “Alerta Roja” which activates the military for the areas that are or will be affected by the Hurricane.  The Alert is for the Entire State of Veracruz, Puebla and Tlaxcala (which are interior states in the path of karl) and Mexico City is under a Intense Storm Warning for the next 3 days.

Tropical Satellite Image for Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

Kevin

Weather Discussion:

Without a doubt the Weather wants to leave the Month of August with a bang, we have weather! Yesterday we had our early morning DOWNPOUR here in Playa Del Carmen, one of those scattered showers that lasted only 20 minutes but gave us a good soaking.  At the same time Puerto Morelos, Cancun and Isla Mujeres were dry and sunny.

Hurricane Danielle now a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 miles per hour moving to the Northwest at 12 miles per hour and expected to turn more to the north sometime before Friday keeping Danielle far from the coastal areas of the US and of course our area as well.  Hurricane Danielle is expected to take a turn more to the North Saturday sometime and steer to the east of Bermuda. Hurricane Danielle is NO THREAT to Mexico.

Tropical Storm Earl, out there to the Southeast of Danielle and still moving West, although Tropical Storms position has been adjusted to the south slightly there is no change in those computer models although the models DO bring Tropical Storm Earl much closer to the Lesser Antilles, Antigua and Puerto Rico as well as the Virgin Islands than Danielle and much closer than expected.

All that spaghetti showing that Earl will play follow the leader with Danielle and turn towards the North later down the road.  Most of the models show that Vertical Shear will be quite low at least for the next 2 or 3 days giving Earl a chance to grow up and get one of those nice upgrades to Hurricane Status over the next day or two. Tropical Storm Earl is currently of NO THREAT to land BUT, I think we need to keep a very close eye on Tropical Storm Earl for any changes in conditions that could keep him on a westward course longer or not turning North on time.  Tropical Storm Earl like Hurricane Danielle is of NO THREAT to Mexico.

New today we have INVEST 97L which will most likely become the next named tropical system of the season, this is an INTENSE Tropical Wave that has very organized clouds, showers and thundershowers associated with it and Conditions are Excellent for development of this system. We will keep a watchful eye on the future Tropical Storm Fiona.

On the Pacific side of Mexico we still have Hurricane Frank moving Northwest away from Mexico but tonight Hurricane Frank is expected to turn North and then head towards Baja California Sur.  The National Meteorlogical Office has a Special Avisory for Severe Storms until 3PM today for Coastal Chiapas.  The Advisory states that “Intense Storms could be accompanied by Heavy Rain, Cloud to Cloud and Cloud to Ground Lightning, Hail, that can cause injury or damage to property.  Low areas could be subject to flash flooding as well as landslides in mountain areas.

Cold Front #1 continues pushing down from the US into the Gulf of Mexico with a low pressure area behind it which can cause some unstable conditions as well as windy conditions and lower temperatures. You can check it out on the map.

Tropical Satellite Image for the Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Mexico

On the weather map here you can see that we have that Tropical Wave 25 has moved closer to the Yucatan Peninsula but its center has dropped down and will cross the area of the Yucatan around Belize but extends as far north as the top of the Peninsula and south to Panama.  This tropical wave has some scattered and disorganized clouds as well as some very disorganized showers and thundershowers moving in front of it. This system is very disorganized as are the showers and clouds and presents very little possibility of any development over the next couple of days.  The conditions in the Caribbean are NOT FAVORABLE for development.

Finally in the Gulf of Mexico near Texas a Low Pressure area has popped up (what a surprise on this odd weather day) and is moving west southwest so we have to see what will happen there.  The conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are slightly favorable for development.

Current Condtions in Playa Del Carmen:

Skies: Mostly Cloudy with scattered showers around the area.

Temperatures: Current 81 F / 27° C Highs 91° F / 33° C Overnight Lows 75° F / 24° C

Humidity: 89%

Barometer: 29.90/ 1013 Steady (Playa Del Carmen)

Wind: 4 mph / 6 kph coming from the southeast

Warnings / Watches: There are no watches or warnings for our area of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Weather Outlook for Cancun, Playa Del Carmen and The Riviera Maya.

For Cancun and The Riviera Maya for Friday and Saturday we will enjoy some more of what we had yesterday, partly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, hot and humid day. Partly Sunny skies will prevail, temperatures could reach the low 90′s F / 30′s C both days and of course thanks to our field of high humidity (above 80%) a chance of an afternoon or evening shower or thundershower. Overnight lows will be around 75º F / 24º C with a bit more wind as Cold Front #1 begins pushing down and Tropical Wave 25 moves closer to the Peninsula.  We have a chance of scattered brief showers or thundershowers  around the area.

Above I already commented on the situations with Hurricanes Frank and Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl so I won’t repeat that here.

Tropical Wave 25 can affect us with disorganized and scattered clouds and showers over the next 24 hour but nothing of any consequence but the Coastal Area of Chiapas is under a Severe Storm Warning until 3PM today because of Tropical Wave 25.

Conditions in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are NOT FAVORABLE for development.

If you take a look at the our Local Radar Here you can see that there is no shower activity within 150 miles of Cancun (radar range is 299 kilometers).

Meanwhile if you are in Cancun, The Riviera Maya or the Islands here be sure you get the sunblock on whether you are laying on the Beach, doing a tour or just walking around getting oriented, the sun will be behind clouds from time to time today making you think you don’t need sunblock but you DO. Make sure you hydrate, drink lots of water, and if you are at the pool or on the beach stagger between those beers and cocktails a nice bottle of water. Don’t take the sun for granted, enjoy your vacations.